• O_O
  • Agent
  • Offline

Topic: Hungary to english 99% scan

Can somebody elaborate what it means to have a 96,25% accuracy? When can the scan be up?. Is the error bigger if the scan was made earlier?

  • Cons
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Ex. ~2000m from artifact and 96.25% accuracy. There will be + or - 3.75m x 20 = 61.5m~ error

if you were only 200 meters away then it would only be 6.15m~ error.

More time difference the more extrapolation for error. Less time less extrapolation for error.

  • Cons
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

nothing hungarian about that math. that 3.75% error is going to be a lot larger on a larger number and small on a small time.

  • O_O
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Okay what I meant was to question that if I have a 96,25% percent scanner and use an intrusion charge to figure out a sap time, when can the SAP be open. I get told that 99% scans can't be off more than 1 minute but if I use the same logic as in the artifact scanning early scans can be almost 10 minutes wide.

  • DEV
  • Developer
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Intrusion scans always have a slight inaccuracy, even at 100%.

6 Reply by Gwyndor (edited by Gwyndor 2014-11-16 20:27:31)

  • Cons
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Rolafen Azec wrote:

Okay what I meant was to question that if I have a 96,25% percent scanner and use an intrusion charge to figure out a sap time, when can the SAP be open. I get told that 99% scans can't be off more than 1 minute but if I use the same logic as in the artifact scanning early scans can be almost 10 minutes wide.

96% accuracy with ~8 hours or 480 minutes to go you could be off by as much as 18 minutes

  • Cons
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

This is another reason I think Active saps should be Publicly available in some sot of global intrusion window or extension of the news tab.

Maybe even give 5 minute warning before sap? I would sure as hell show up a lot more.

  • O_O
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Is the probabilty distirbution uniform within the margins? If it is some kind of a bell curve then having a percent represent the accuracy is misleading. I have a reports of 99% scans almost always be within 1 minute of the SAP time, way more accurate that the presented % math would give basis for.

  • PHM
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

It's done to discouraged everyone and thwirmother from showing up.

Steam achievement Unlocked:  Being a Badass
http://www.perp-kill.net/kill/239407
Dev Zoom: I think its time to confess, Ville is my alt
Dev Zoom: Ville can be sometimes so sane it's scary.
  • Cons
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

I didnt understand what they meant by strange math when I first started playing this game. Now I know.

  • BKK
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

what exactly is strange about 1% inaccuracy of a bigger number meaning a bigger possible delta then on a smaller number?
also whats strange about the result beeing a random delta between the "exact" and the "highest possible deviation?

if ANYTHIGN is wrong, that it would be a hidden inaccuracy like Zoom wrote up there. If you want to have a max accuracy for intrusion scans, then write it into the info of the the scan charge, and also add a conditional modifer to it, so it subsracts that permanent inaccuracy from the scanner after cappping it to 100%

*Disclaimer: This post can contain strong sarcasm or cynical remarks. keep that in mind!
Whining - It's amazing how fast your trivial concerns will disappear
  • REMEDY
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

well you could make it easy and give a info in the scan window: +/- xyz mins

but who wants easy...

  • O_O
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

I would be content with hard if the puzzle would be solvable

  • BKK
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Rolafen Azec wrote:

I would be content with hard if the puzzle would be solvable

whats not solvable for you?

*Disclaimer: This post can contain strong sarcasm or cynical remarks. keep that in mind!
Whining - It's amazing how fast your trivial concerns will disappear
  • O_O
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Exact or approximate probability distribution of when the SAP is opening given a scan and an accuracy. I have moderate reasons to think the models I curretnly have don't match the actual behaviour.

16 Reply by Zortarg (edited by Zortarg 2014-11-17 15:07:54)

  • REMEDY
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

well its simple.
when you scan a outpost it gives you a time.

if you dont have 100% then it will deviate from the exact time (or like zoom said, even with 100% it will deviate a bit. but thats minor)

the deviation is in a range of your accuracy. lets say you have 95%. then the scan can deviate up to 5% in both directions.
of cource you have no way to know how much it accually deviated, and you also dont know if its early or if its late. so it can be anything from +5% to -5% or anything inbetween. in some cases it even might be quite accurate. thats the beauty of randomness.

also the deviation is a percenatge. so if the sap is only 4h out at your last scan then the deviation is +/- 12mins (5% of 4h). but if the scan is still 12h out then the deviation is +/- 36mins (5% of 12h). still the same 5% deviation.

thats why scanning outposts with 100% is always a good thing. of cource its now harder with the bonus changes on the argano...

i hope i have confused you.

  • O_O
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Yesw this is the percnetage theory which was refernced/statede above already. However I have veteran saying that a 99% scan is never more than 1 minute off. This is way more acurate than what the percentage theory would suggest. I a taking that if I have a +-12 minitues then the sap is going to be equally likely to be in any moment within that fork. But it seems the probabilty isn't "flat" the time near the prediction seems to be weighted (be more probable then the outshirts). If the probability were flat I woudl have a 50%/50% chance taht the SAP happens within +-6 minute4s than in the outer 6 minutes still beyond it. But it seems the "inner window" is favoured over the outer window.

  • REMEDY
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

well we dont know how the "randomness" in this case works.
if you want to know you have to make your own statistics about it. will take a couple million nic and a lot work wit a spreadsheet to see how it goes. personally not worth my time... 100% scans seam to be pretty accurate still...

  • BKK
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

three scans should give you a nice average wink

*Disclaimer: This post can contain strong sarcasm or cynical remarks. keep that in mind!
Whining - It's amazing how fast your trivial concerns will disappear
  • JOKE
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Perhaps they should give the old argano bonus to lairds and perhaps the most useless ct in the game laird mk2 might actualy be worth having.

Proverbs 23:20-21 warns us, “Do not join those who drink too much wine or gorge themselves on meat, for drunkards and gluttons become poor, and drowsiness clothes them in rags."
  • PHM
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Zortarg wrote:

well its simple.
when you scan a outpost it gives you a time.

if you dont have 100% then it will deviate from the exact time (or like zoom said, even with 100% it will deviate a bit. but thats minor)

the deviation is in a range of your accuracy. lets say you have 95%. then the scan can deviate up to 5% in both directions.
of cource you have no way to know how much it accually deviated, and you also dont know if its early or if its late. so it can be anything from +5% to -5% or anything inbetween. in some cases it even might be quite accurate. thats the beauty of randomness.

also the deviation is a percenatge. so if the sap is only 4h out at your last scan then the deviation is +/- 12mins (5% of 4h). but if the scan is still 12h out then the deviation is +/- 36mins (5% of 12h). still the same 5% deviation.

thats why scanning outposts with 100% is always a good thing. of cource its now harder with the bonus changes on the argano...

i hope i have confused you.

^^ good to be in your guide.

Ignorance is curable, Stupidity is not.
The "Planet of the Apes" is not science fiction, is a daily reality.
All is in "The Matrix".
See Beyond the Obvious.
  • Cons
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Jita wrote:

Perhaps they should give the old argano bonus to lairds and perhaps the most useless ct in the game laird mk2 might actualy be worth having.


Would be great now that the laird has a masking boost. Ninja industrial for super sekret ops

  • BKK
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

just max the d**** extension and you have 100% accuracy on every bot....

*Disclaimer: This post can contain strong sarcasm or cynical remarks. keep that in mind!
Whining - It's amazing how fast your trivial concerns will disappear
  • O_O
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

I just had a scan be 15 minutes off when according to percentage theory it should have been capable to be only 10 minutes off, accuracy was 96.25%.

  • BKK
  • Agent
  • Offline

Re: Hungary to english 99% scan

Rolafen Azec wrote:

I just had a scan be 15 minutes off when according to percentage theory it should have been capable to be only 10 minutes off, accuracy was 96.25%.

DEV Zoom wrote:

Intrusion scans always have a slight inaccuracy, even at 100%.

even its written in clearly to understand words, some still don't understand the implications.
zoom - can you give an exact number, and write it into the intrusion scan ammo description?

*Disclaimer: This post can contain strong sarcasm or cynical remarks. keep that in mind!
Whining - It's amazing how fast your trivial concerns will disappear