Topic: Market Predictions

Ok a little about myself first. I'm not a professional marketeer irl, I'm a game developer. Don't expect fancy theories or any of that crap, this is just cost/benefit analysis from the perspective of expected player actions.

Alright so going from immediate to long term I shall determine with 90% confidence the trends of the market on several different item types.

#1. Bots will get cheaper, much cheaper. I estimate that over the next 2 months the price of most bots will be between 75 and 85% of their insurance payout value, exceptions being mechs requiring epriton products, which will hover at about 110% until we reach epriton saturation.
>>proposed action SELL BOTS.

#2. Standard mob drops will become more expensive. There's a reason, but I'm not telling cause I'm profiting off of it right now.
>>proposed action BUY/SAVE STANDARD DROPS.

#3. Commodity buy and sell orders will reach equilibrium at approximately 90% of the value of their base components. This could take some time, as refiners and manufacturers tend to be the same people and it's stinting the market currently, but titanium and iso have already come quite close to meeting this prediction.
>>proposed action CONSUME COMMODITIES.

#4. T3 and T4 kernels will increase in value as more prototypers begin absolutely requiring these kernels to advance their knowledgebase.
>>proposed action BUY/SAVE T3+ KERNELS.

#5. Raw material prices will rise until bots are break-even when building with about 100% efficiency.
>>proposed action when bot prices start hitting expected levels BUY/SAVE RAW MATERIALS.

#6. Equipment prices will shift with raw material prices.
>>proposed action when raw material prices go up BUY/SAVE EQUIPMENT.

#7. Epriton will have saturated the market and will reduce in relative value, though due to general inflation from increased ore prices, I am unable to determine the final value at this time.
>>proposed action WATCH EPRITON.

#8. Decoders increase in value slightly with increase in ore costs. All manufactured items increase slightly in value with them. Market reaches approximate equilibrium. At this point several players have a sufficient asset pool to act independently from the market for long stretches.

Re: Market Predictions

I agree with 1, 2, 3, 7, and most of 8.

However for number...

4) I think a good deal of combat pilots are using these kernels themselves to complete their own knowledge base (or that of their alts). Once their knowledge bases are filled then those kernels will be introduced back into the market to balance out the relative few number of specialized prototype producers.

5) The amount of miners and harvesters is generally greater than manufacturers so the supply of ore wont really be in danger of dwindling. Also, producers simply won't make bots anymore if there is no profit to be had in them, especially in relation to other items. This would send the supply down and therefore the demand and price up.

6) Prices on equipment will decrease similar to bot prices and the corresponding profit margins will eventually reach a relative equilibrium.

8) I'm sure that many players will be able to remove themselves entirely from the market for long stretches, especially if the upcoming player-owned structures are anything like I think they will be. However, I don't think decoder prices will rise. If anything, they should fall with the number of players increasing overall along with the number of players farming higher level enemies.

Just my two cents.

Re: Market Predictions

I'am agree

Re: Market Predictions

I predict that forum posters will continue to try to influence the market ...

smile

Re: Market Predictions

lol this is officially StEVE 2.0 xD

Contact me in game via e-mail or PM for -CS- recruitment information.

Re: Market Predictions

The game is influenced mostly by the number, age, and wealth of players.
The devs do change the rules via patches (such as the transport assignment reward change), but most of that is actually stabilizing - to keep the game being played as they intended it to be played.
As the player population gets older and wealthier, minerals, goods, and NIC all become easier for the population to obtain - but possibly at different rates. Many people are presently complaining that NIC is not much easier to obtain at 50k EP than at 20k EP, for example. As players become older and wealthier, they also shift their consumption - more mechs and heavy mechs and related goods, for example.

It's tricky to predict the effect of greater numbers of players. If we assume that more players also means a greater portion of them becoming specialized traders or repairers, then the VAT% and repair NIC sinks becomes weaker, which would suggest higher prices.

Basic large-scale prediction: As time goes by without a major uptick in newbies (such as might be caused by an expansion or advertising campaign), expect prices of minerals and goods in general to fall as miners and manufacturers get more experienced/wealthier and therefore more efficient. After a major uptick in newbies, prices for newbie mats (titan, hdt, helioptris) and newbie goods may go down more slowly, or briefly go up.

Re: Market Predictions

Simple truth: If anyone thinks this is easy and obvious, get into the stockmarket, you're rich.

Re: Market Predictions

I predict that we will see a re-session at some point.

John 3:16 - Timothy 2:23

Re: Market Predictions

I wouldn't say it's "easy", but "obvious to those who know to look" comes to mind wink

Contact me in game via e-mail or PM for -CS- recruitment information.

Re: Market Predictions

Gerrick wrote:

I agree with 1, 2, 3, 7, and most of 8.

However for number...

4) I think a good deal of combat pilots are using these kernels themselves to complete their own knowledge base (or that of their alts). Once their knowledge bases are filled then those kernels will be introduced back into the market to balance out the relative few number of specialized prototype producers.

5) The amount of miners and harvesters is generally greater than manufacturers so the supply of ore wont really be in danger of dwindling. Also, producers simply won't make bots anymore if there is no profit to be had in them, especially in relation to other items. This would send the supply down and therefore the demand and price up.

6) Prices on equipment will decrease similar to bot prices and the corresponding profit margins will eventually reach a relative equilibrium.

8) I'm sure that many players will be able to remove themselves entirely from the market for long stretches, especially if the upcoming player-owned structures are anything like I think they will be. However, I don't think decoder prices will rise. If anything, they should fall with the number of players increasing overall along with the number of players farming higher level enemies.

Just my two cents.

You make a good point on each of these, but i did consider those points.

For #4) you are correct on that but before they equalize back out, the major industrialists will have maxed their knowledge base, it could be a while before that happens.
for #5) when bot prices reach equilibrium, bot consumption will go up, either through reckless combat or insurance fraud. One industrialist can account for hundreds of miners if they want to.
#6) i'm just predicting that production cost will increase which will drive up prices on gear. If ore costs don't move, then you are correct. (obviously higher end gear will drop with availablility long before it rises.)
#8) my prediction on decoder prices is based on the value one would be willing to pay for them, which would be equal to the amount of mineral value saved in production. If minerals go up in price, decoders will follow, assuming supply is sufficient.

Re: Market Predictions

I didnt read everything coz i'm a lazy troll, however point 2 is flawed.  That is on the assumption that the player base will move on as Aion did (did you play aion?) People will still need them, recycling, new player income etc etc. its an easy way to get materials

Re: Market Predictions

Rule #1 you dont talk about station trading
Rule #2 you dont talk about station trading