Topic: Insider Trading

All of the ores (Titan/Sterm/Iment) were were bought off the global market yesterday... The supply side was completely taken out... I thought it was a not so subtle market manipulation but as it turns out it was much more sinister.

From todays patch notes:
Change: Material regeneration rate has been decreased on alpha islands.

The fact that the markets were so drastically affected prior to the public announcement can only mean that some "special" players were given advance access to the patch notes and then exploited the non-public information to further their own interests.

Accusations of nepotism have been made before, and while suspected they were largely unfounded since their was no hard evidence.  This most recent development is pretty damming.

While it may have seemed harmless to the person leaking the information, real world economics has shown that a lack of confidence in fair markets leads to a loss in investor confidence and results in investors seeking alternative markets or dropping out all together.

What that translates to here is that no one wants to play a rigged game, and as they become frustrated with unfair treatment (real or perceived) they will quit.  I really like PO and don't want to see that happen.

In the real world, in order to address a loss of market confidence regulatory bodies will investigate the market activity and persecute the offenders.  I'm not sure that Dev's will go that far, but publicly recognizing that asymmetric information sharing and conflicts of interest have become a problem and will be addressed would make me feel a lot better. 

No matter how much you enjoy a game, in the end no one wants to pay to watch someone else cheat them.

"You're living in a parallel universe." ~Syndic

Re: Insider Trading

It was just simply market manipulation.

If someone had advanced knowledge materials would go up in cost they would stockpile it, sit on it for 4+ months while the price increased 4-5 fold. Then sell their stuff.

buying all the ore and relisting it at 50% markup is just someone being stupid.

and the market has already recovered except for titan ore and its slowly going down.

Since the price for titan ore is higher than normal that just means more people will mine it, causing the price to go down even further.

all the change means is people will need to scan for stuff more and not stay in one area forever.

No need to freak out.

Re: Insider Trading

Bacon Smurf wrote:

If someone had advanced knowledge materials would go up in cost they would stockpile it, sit on it for 4+ months while the price increased 4-5 fold. Then sell their stuff.

Someone WAS stockpiling yesterday, what do you think happen to the entire supply side of the economy?

buying all the ore and relisting it at 50% markup is just someone being stupid.
and the market has already recovered except for titan ore and its slowly going down.

Your assuming the same people listing were those who were buying, however you don't find it suspiciously coincidental that the largest market manipulation to date happened 24hrs before an announcement that supply availability was being reduced?

Since the price for titan ore is higher than normal that just means more people will mine it, causing the price to go down even further.
all the change means is people will need to scan for stuff more and not stay in one area forever.

Your describing a predictable response to a manipulation, but not addressing the reduction in supply availability that followed it. More scanning is not the solution to limited supply... it just means miners need to go further out of there way.  Inventory stockpiles provide short term market elasticity, the impacts of supply changes have not been felt yet.

No need to freak out.

I thought the post was more or less comparing recent in game activity with real world, documented and well studied economic repercussions.  When the public loses confidence they stop participating.

"You're living in a parallel universe." ~Syndic

4 (edited by Bacon Smurf 2011-02-04 19:04:35)

Re: Insider Trading

Someone WAS stockpiling yesterday, what do you think happen to the entire supply side of the economy?

They purchased the items and then relisted them at a higher price. I did not notice a decrease in supply. And if there is it will be filled eventually.

Your assuming the same people listing were those who were buying, however you don't find it suspiciously coincidental that the largest market manipulation to date happened 24hrs before an announcement that supply availability was being reduced?

It is a coincidence however you could say the same for the people who were stock piling T4. That does not mean they knew prices T4 was getting a new component.

Everytime there is a patch materials reset, even on beta. What was a good epi spot yesterday is today not a very good spot. It sucks.

the person who did this probably knew that after a patch the fields reset.

I guess we will see what happens but i dont think many people are concerned over it

Re: Insider Trading

Quick explanations:

Buying all materials on market and relisting:  Absurd amounts of money had by some players/corporations without anything to do with it.  Mayby just an attempt at making some quick cash, or seeing if it might actually work.

Stockpiling T4 equipment:  This is a pvp game.  If you dont have backups you will lose.



As far as the new alpha regeneration rates, I doubt it will affect much.  MIners will have to move locations more, but doubtful they'll completely mine out an alpha island of any 1 material for a very long time, at least not until the population grows.

->You just lost The Game<-

6 (edited by Euphoric 2011-02-04 19:44:36)

Re: Insider Trading

I agree that the manipulator's strategy is probably ineffective and didn't ruin the game for anyone. However, people are stupid, and the effectiveness of said manipulation has nothing to do with how extremely coincidental the timing appears to be.

Just because the manipulator is foolish doesn't mean information wasn't leaked.

Re: Insider Trading

I don't agree with the op's conclusion. this patch in itself won't raise the market price. buying up everything and selling for higher price could work well tough.

8 (edited by Ember 2011-02-05 07:27:59)

Re: Insider Trading

Seridur wrote:

I don't agree with the op's conclusion. this patch in itself won't raise the market price. buying up everything and selling for higher price could work well tough.

My conclusions were not related to rising prices post patch.  I made a blunt accusation of insider trading, and tried to illustrate the harm that nepotism (real or perceived) may have to the long term success of this game.  I did not offer a conclusion. 

My personal conclusion (not stated here until now) is that DEV's should enact internal controls and act swiftly and decisively in stamping out all shadows of doubt (not limited to this post)

I like this game more than any other MMO I've started in years and would very much like to see it become a sleeper cult hit (insert your own simile here).  I like the patch changes and wasn't trying to comment on there impact on the markets, I think they will raise prices over the next week but thats a conversation for another topic.

Stated simply:
1) Yesterdays market activity was very unusual.
2) It appeared to be market manipulation (sometimes called market PvP) which I support.
3) The patch notes revealed changes to alpha island mining
4) Yesterdays "manipulation" was more likely a single person/corp acting on insider information.
5) Insider information makes outsiders disaffected

Over the long term yesterday was barely a blip on the radar but the ripples portend something much larger just under the surface, hence my conclusion above.  Just for the record, I don't believe anyone was acting in bad faith... but sometimes bad things come from the best intentions. When changing major mechanics like resource spawns, it might be better to release patch notes ahead of time (like the changes to radar viewing range), thus blunting the impact of information that might leak in advance.

"You're living in a parallel universe." ~Syndic

Re: Insider Trading

At the moment there is no immentium on the market anywhere.

All of my alpha mining spots are useless now.

I was told all material spots moved and you have to rescan. Alpha also will regenerate slower now.

prices will be going up.

Re: Insider Trading

nope...the game will die even faster lol...:P

Re: Insider Trading

Minerals were reset last patch as well.

the game will not die it will just delay industry

Re: Insider Trading

If the devs wanted to help someone intentionally they could have done it less plainly (gifting a few billion nics for example smile ) If they leaked information to some friends without thinking of the consequenses then they should look into now and learn from it. no point doing accusations tough, there won't be evidence anyway.
((I thought this new plant will be used for a new tier of equipment. If I had known that they would change the t4 items' cost I would had bought them up all.. as someone appearently did and making tons of money. smile ))

Re: Insider Trading

Bacon Smurf wrote:

I was told all material spots moved and you have to rescan. Alpha also will regenerate slower now.

My imen spot is still where it was before. It definitely does regenerate slower though, to a very noticeable degree compared to pre-patch.

14 (edited by Siddy 2011-02-05 15:42:46)

Re: Insider Trading

WTF I CANT SIT SEMI AFK ON SAME SPOT FOR MONTHS ON END, GAME IS DYING!

or something along this lines... roll

Re: Insider Trading

Neoxx wrote:

but doubtful they'll completely mine out an alpha island of any 1 material for a very long time, at least not until the population grows.

well unless u count plants as minerals (which r not ok)
cya