Topic: randomized syndicate orders

Could we get more texture to the game by randomizing the NPC orders a bit?

A mean-reverting random walk is something like: An urn is filled with some mix of white and black balls. Repeatedly pick a ball at random and change it to the opposite color. The number of black balls at any given time wanders around, but if it is high then it is likely to go lower, and if it is low, then it is likely to go higher.

Changing the flat infinite orders to randomly moving ones (particularly mean-reverting random walks) would add some nice texture to the economy of the game.

If the limit of the range of the randomized syndicate orders are equal to the current flat infinite orders, then it's not a buff - previously players always got the best price, now on only on very good days they get that price.

You might even allow the randomized syndicate order to go beyond the current price (40 nic per charge instead of 45? madness!). By moving the order back towards the current flat price, based on the volume that people transact with it, then the rate of the 'market timing spigot' is bounded. The devs would be able to say "The players can get at most N unusually-cheap charges (or whatever) per week out of us by timing the market, but we're okay with that".

Re: randomized syndicate orders

thats what actually the player market should do, by having local supply/demand differences.
but the game is not built that way

*Disclaimer: This post can contain strong sarcasm or cynical remarks. keep that in mind!
Whining - It's amazing how fast your trivial concerns will disappear

Re: randomized syndicate orders

Ever heard of super computers running the stock market by making lightning fast transactions to only make a penny? I could see a macro easily abusing the hell out of this or even players that know how statistics work to calculate the average price and always profit

Re: randomized syndicate orders

Nic is kind of pointless in Perpetuum though as there's nothing you can't get for yourself even as a solo player.

Proverbs 23:20-21 warns us, “Do not join those who drink too much wine or gorge themselves on meat, for drunkards and gluttons become poor, and drowsiness clothes them in rags."

Re: randomized syndicate orders

@Gwyndor: You don't have to be a supercomputer to figure out, if the urn has 20 balls in it, then the average number of black balls is 10. If a similar mean-reverting random walk has upper and lower bounds 40 nic and 50 nic, then on average the price would be 45 nic. It doesn't need to change particularly fast to add texture to the market - roughly hourly or daily would be fine - but transaction fees would make high-frequency trading unprofitable anyway (that's what regulators in the real world recommend to curb HFT).

@Jita: is there a major source of nic other than plasma? Don't you need nic to pay prototyping and manufacturing fees?

Re: randomized syndicate orders

Plasma is source enough and pisses nic in to the game at an unsustainable rate. Other than that there are npc buy orders. If you own your station building costs nothing, you get it back.

Proverbs 23:20-21 warns us, “Do not join those who drink too much wine or gorge themselves on meat, for drunkards and gluttons become poor, and drowsiness clothes them in rags."

Re: randomized syndicate orders

Untz wrote:

@Gwyndor: You don't have to be a supercomputer to figure out, if the urn has 20 balls in it, then the average number of black balls is 10. If a similar mean-reverting random walk has upper and lower bounds 40 nic and 50 nic, then on average the price would be 45 nic. It doesn't need to change particularly fast to add texture to the market - roughly hourly or daily would be fine - but transaction fees would make high-frequency trading unprofitable anyway (that's what regulators in the real world recommend to curb HFT).

@Jita: is there a major source of nic other than plasma? Don't you need nic to pay prototyping and manufacturing fees?


Prototyping and manufacturing fees are really a drop in the bucket and can be more than recouped by the sale of one item out of a run of 50 or more.

Re: randomized syndicate orders

The complication is pretty high cost for a very minimal esthetic return. This way all fluctuation is real. If there where artificial insertion of fluctuations the increase in perception of the artificiality would be more than the gains in esthetics.

Re: randomized syndicate orders

The cost isn't really something we can estimate. There's an xkcd about the difficulty non-developers have seeing which features are difficult: http://xkcd.com/1425/

The benefit is analogous to the terrain - yes, you can give people a flat plane and tell them to make their own fun, but it helps to have a developer create at least some islands with tactically interesting terrain.

Re: randomized syndicate orders

I am not talking about development costs but rather usability costs. It makes understanding the markets slightly harder. I would rather want to focus on the psychological and political aspects rather than require too much statistics / mathematematics in order to participate.